Why do favourites lose so often?

Why do favourites lose so often was a question asked of us by a Form Ratings member and we’re here to help answer that.

What makes a horse a favourite though?

In horse racing, a favourite is the horse that is expected to win the race according to the betting public. The favourite is determined by the odds set by the bookmakers, who take into account various factors such as the horse's past performance, the jockey's record, the track conditions, and the competition in the race. 

The odds reflect the amount of money that a bettor can win if they place a successful wager on the horse, with the favourite typically having the lowest odds, meaning the smallest payout. 

However, it's important to note that favourites don't always win, and there are many factors that can affect the outcome of a race, including unforeseen circumstances, competition, and fatigue, among others.

We’ve gone back through the data and the average win rate of a favourite is around 35%, here’s the data back to 2018: