Strategy Watch: HRS10+

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By Jason Brockman

updated 28 days ago

The HRS 10+ Strategy

With this strategy, we look at the data in the HRS column.  HRS is the Horse Race Score which is calculated on a number of form factors and weighted to the current race.  We're looking for the horse with the Top HRS, then look to the next best horse to find those with at least a 10 point lead.  

This strategy produces a number of horses each day for you to select, we have created this as a smart selection where you can instantly see the horses that meet that criteria today.

As you can see below, BROADWAY JOE has a clear 10+ advantage on the HRS rating from all of the other contenders.  

The HRS column can be sorted to rate the highest rated horse simply by clicking on the column header.  This applies for each rating that you wish to sort.

Performance:

By just following this strategy, you will see a mixed bag of success with around 30% strike rate.  Over the past 6 months that we have been tracking the performance of this strategy, it has turned profits (and losses) in the win, place and lay betting markets.

Summary:

With the inconsistency of results for HRS 10+ strategy, we can determine that there's more at play then just the form factors which are used to calculate the score.   The form factors used are relating to the horses past race performance to give it a score which is relevant to the current race.  Course, distance, jockey, trainer, distance travelled, race recency and more go into the algorithm which calculates the HRS.  Next we look at how we can improve the consistency:

Improving the results:

If you're looking for winners, there are a number of other things which you can do to whittle down the list of horses the HRS 10+ strategy provides.  We could look at the time of year (weather/flat/jumps) does this impact on the results?  Whilst HRS considers the going, if the going changes drastically over night, then this may impact on the HRS score.

Backing favourites or short odds - could only backing the favourite, or those horses which have odds of say 2/1 or less be a filter?

Type of race - does the strategy work particularly well for certain race types? 

Combine - can we also add in another of the ratings to reduce the number of selections? Highest FRN, progressive LR etc

Dataset - are there any horses on the cards which have a zero, indicating that there's some unknown variables included?

Something else?  If you have another theory we can test, please submit your idea and we'll turn it into a smart selection.

How can I use HRS 10+ to lay successfully

With the consistency issue raised above for this strategy, it's hard to just follow the selections to place bets for the win, lay or place.  We do need to factor in some of those factors above to find the horses who are most likely to lose the race.  To do this, we could look at those with other lower ratings in the columns - so 10+ clear on the HRS column, but there's horses with higher FRN/SPD etc.  We could look at those who are outsiders in the current betting market (not the forecast odds we provide).  We could only select horses where the ground condition has changed overnight.  We could look for races with incomplete datasets.

All these could point to a horse who is more likely to lose than win, and so indicate a lay bet be placed.

How could I use HRS 10+ to spot false favourites:

False Favourites are those who are shortest priced in the markets, but really don't have a chance of winning.  For these we look to the odds column of the horses selected, and compare it to the current market price, and look for the discrepancies between those selected as HRS 10+ and the forecast odds we show, and the current market price.  The discrepancy will indicate whether they are a false favourite.

False Favourites can then be "layed", ie backed to not win on betting exchanges such as Betfair.

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